It, and the fire that followed, caused an estimated 3,000 deaths, $400 million in property damage (in 1906 dollars), and left 250,000 people without shelter. The 1906 Earthquake had an estimated magnitude of 7.8. That template of essential parts is becoming increasingly susceptible to catastrophic failure. As the population density of the region increases, we become more dependent on an ever-more complex-and fragile-matrix of interrelated infrastructure, social, and economic factors. Today, the nine-county Bay Area has a population of nearly seven million. When the "Great Earthquake" hit in 1906, San Francisco was the eighth largest city in the United States, and by far the largest city west of the Mississippi. All of these factors exacerbate the dangers inherent to being precariously straddled between the San Andreas and Hayward faults. And with 75 percent of the rental housing stock covered by rent control, much of the housing stock is poorly maintained. Much of the city was built on sand, landfill, and other non-compacted soil, which is subject to liquefaction. Our housing stock is the oldest in the West. Of all American cities, San Francisco is probably the most vulnerable to catastrophic disaster. In San Francisco, our housing stock will suffer the most. There is little doubt that major earthquakes will hit the Bay Area again, and wreak havoc on our social structure, utilities, transportation, and economy. In the preceding 75 years (between 18), there were 16 earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 or stronger, most of which were centered in what are now heavily populated areas. Over the past 75 years, there have only been two earthquakes in the Bay Area with magnitudes of 6.0 or greater. During our lifetime it is probable that we will face a catastrophic earthquake in the urbanized San Francisco Bay Area. A disaster of epic proportions is brewing in our backyard.
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